Articles for November 2021
The case for a Universal Basic Income Grant
The Covid pandemic has greatly exacerbated existing poverty and unemployment in South Africa. What are the best policies to alleviate it? Targeted social grants may aim to reach the poorest of the poor but there are many inefficiencies in the targeting method. A Universal Basic Income Guarantee is more costly, yet simpler to implement, will reach those in need more quickly, and is financially feasible.
The MTBPS clears some fiscal space but it is still a path through a swamp
Treasury did the best it could in this month’s Medium Term Budget Policy Statement. Half the revenue windfall was used for fiscal consolidation and the other half on spending increases. But real cuts to expenditure are still pending, and cabinet backing is yet to be negotiated. Achieving consolidation next year will be even harder as the commodity boom wanes and election politics wax.
COVID-19: the measure of learning losses
How much learning did primary school children in poorer schools lose due to the lockdowns resulting from the Covid-19 pandemic? Three different studies on early-grade reading from no-fee schools across South Africa show that in 2020, grade 2 students lost between 57% and 70% of a year of learning, and grade 4s between 62% and 81%. There is also evidence from the grade 4 sample that girls and those with stronger initial reading proficiency have been most negatively affected. The key question for education authorities now is how to mitigate the long-run implications of these losses.