Articles for September 2022
Gender, care, and climate change: Why they are connected
Why does our society place so little value on care? The pandemic showed the centrality of health and care workers to daily life. But unpaid work – mainly done by women – does not figure as part of the calculations of the GDP of a country. Closely related to this is the scant value we place on the environment and preserving it for coming generations. Our economic models do not factor in essential, but unpaid work done by women, nor the critical task of protecting our fragile environment.
How agro-processing can boost regional integration – and development
Regional integration in Africa is underway but progress requires that the gains are widely spread. South Africa’s huge regional trade surplus in manufactured goods is leading to protectionist pressures in neighbouring countries. Agro-processing is a large sector that has significant potential, but the export performance of the region has been poor if South Africa is excluded. Regional value chains are failing to include the small economies of southern Africa. Constraints include tariff and non-tariff barriers, weak infrastructure, as well as poorly developed local suppliers. Some retail chains, supported by governments and NGOs, are now taking the lead in developing small-scale suppliers in the region. But other policies to improve the regulatory and investment environment are also necessary.
How big is the illicit cigarette market in South Africa?
In August 2022, British American Tobacco South Africa (BATSA) announced the illicit cigarette trade in the past year comprised 70% of the local market. To test whether this claim is true, I updated previous research that provided estimates of illicit trade from 2002−2017 to include estimates for 2018−2021. Using gap analysis, I estimated that between 2002 and 2009 the illicit cigarette market accounted for around 5% of the total market. Since 2010, however, the illicit cigarette market has increased sharply: by 2017, it accounted for 30%−35% of the total market. But it was the 20-week cigarettes sales ban in 2020 that really entrenched the illicit market. I estimate that illicit trade was 54% in 2020 and 2021. These estimates are lower than BATSA’s estimate of 70%, but are still cause for much concern. BATSA’s estimate is wrong for two reasons: the estimate is for Gauteng (one of the nine provinces in their sample), not South Africa as a whole, and, secondly, its estimate relates to the proportion of stores it claims sold illicit cigarettes, as opposed to the overall proportion of illicit cigarettes consumed.