Axel Schimmel-pfennig

Position: Advisor, African Department

Institution: International Monetary Fund

Expertise: International macroeconomics

Axel is a national of Germany, and studied economics at the University of Tübingen, the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, and the University of Kiel where he completed his masters and doctorate in economics. Since 1999, Axel has worked at the International Monetary Fund in a number of capacities. He is currently the IMF’s mission chief to Uganda and an Advisor in the IMF's African Department. From 2012-16, he was the senior resident representative in South Africa. Before coming to the IMF, Axel worked as a research associated at the Kiel Institute of World Economics where he consulted for the German Ministry of Economics on raising potential growth and reducing structural unemployment. He also taught econometrics in the Institute’s Advanced Studies in International Economic Policy Research program. Axel has written on fiscal and external sustainability, sovereign debt crises, public debt management, the effectiveness of fiscal policy, pension reform, labor markets, and promoting high and sustained growth.

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What makes the rand so volatile: global or home-made factors?

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Editor's Corner

From the REDI3x3 project:

The South African informal sector: Creating jobs, reducing poverty

Editor: Frederick Fourie
Consulting editor: Caroline Skinner
With a foreword by Ravi Kanbur.

Published by HSRC Press.
ISBN 978-0-7969-2534-3
Available from leading bookstores @ R290.
Or order online at: takealot.com
vanschaik.com; exclusivebooks.co.za

Download from HSRC Open Access:

https://www.hsrcpress.ac.za/books/the-south-african-informal-sector-providing-jobs-reducing-poverty

‘A prerequisite for good policy-making for this part of the economy is good analysis. … This volume embodies analytical excellence. I look forward to its impact on policy-making in South Africa and the world.’

Ravi Kanbur (Cornell University)

Working Papers from the REDI3x3 project are available HERE

Econ3x3 readership statistics March 2019: 1200 reads per day on average; average 14 000 reads per article; about 450 000 reads in previous 12 months. More than 1.5 million reads since launch in Dec. 2012. About 40% of site visits are from outside South Africa; significant numbers from the USA, UK, India and Nigeria.

INTERESTING STUFF from elsewhere...

The stable middle class in South Africa may be smaller than thought
Murray Leibbrandt & Rocco Zizzamia
SA’s emerging black middle class has been hailed as the sign of a new, deracialised postapartheid economy. But the stable middle class may be much smaller than previously thought. The ‘vulnerable middle class’ are those who have been poor and who are likely to become poor in future. This vulnerability can be attributed to precarious forms of employment. [From Business Day]
The fourth industrial revolution in Africa: potential for inclusive growth?
Wim Naude
Around 170 million Africans will enter the continent’s labour market between 2010 and 2020. African policymakers consider industrialization as the way to create employment opportunities for these new labour market entrants. With new technological changes and the rise of robotization, how can industrialization ensure inclusive growth? [From The Broker.]
Why new entrants struggle to break into SA's retail space
Reena nas Nair
A handful large supermarket chains hold over 70% of the national market share. This suggests barriers to entry and expansion faced by new entrants, which make it difficult for entrepreneurs, particularly historically disadvantaged ones, to meaningfully participate in this space. It is crucial to open up the market to allow a diversity of retail formats to flourish. [From The Conversation.]

Making the jump from academic research to the policy jungle
Neva Makgetla
It is crucial that academics help policy makers. They have greater objectivity, expertise and in-depth understanding than most analysts. But translating their research to the jungle of government policy making takes effort. They must be willing to take the time and grief to generate useful, even second-best, policy options that meet the hard imperatives of a complex and divided society. [From The Conversation.]

Free tertiariy education will escalate inequality
Steven Friedman
Money is available for free post-school education, but only if there is less for other public services. Free university is affordable only if programmes that serve the poor — social grants, primary health and, for that matter, basic education — are reduced. That will increase, not reduce, inequality. Public services can reach all the people who need them only if the more wealthy, who can pay their share, do. [From Business Day.]

Class and race shape how young people access the job market
Glenda Kruss
Social networks remain the main method of job search for many. But the ability to access social networks is shaped unequally by the education, class and race background. This is particularly the case for jobs that require a university qualification: which university you come from, matters a great deal. For job seekers from poor rural areas, social networks are less helpful. This is why formal public mechanisms are important, particularly for those looking for low-level skilled jobs. [From The Conversation.]

Why it doesn't make sense that all informal mining is deemed illegal
Kgothatso Nhlengetwa
A distinction must be made between illegal mining and informal mining, such as women mining semiprecious tiger’s eye quartz in the Northern Cape. Informal mining often is community based and follows customary law; no trespassing of land takes place – it is very different from zama-zamas. It is time for these practices to be formally recognised in law, thereby enabling small-scale informal mining to be developed whilst dealing with invasive mining as illegal. [From The Conversation.]

Economic growth isn't over, but it doesn't create jobs like it used to
Martin Ford
Unlike innovations in 1870-1970, which were powerful job creators, information technology and artificial intelligence is going to make innovations in the future less labour-intensive. Unless we change our economic rules — perhaps with something like a guaranteed income — the resultant growth will not translate into broad-based prosperity. The innovations may come, but the people at the top of the income distribution will continue to capture nearly all of the gains. {From the Harvard Business Review.]

Can agriculture sustain a nourishing rural non-farm economy?
Andries du Toit, Univ. of the Western Cape
Agricultural development can only serve inclusive growth if it also contributes to the rural non-farm economy, becoming a hub for forward and backward linkages into the local economy. Apart from pro-smallfarmer land reform, this requires support for local retail and informal markets often disregarded by urban planners. Policies should protect informal growers and retailers from being swamped by large-scale agriculture and corporate retailers in rural markets. [From The Conversation.]

Why the voice of Africa's informal economy should be heard
Terence Jackson, Middlesex University
The informal economy in Africa is big business. But governments and organisations like the World Bank and ILO do not like the informal economy. Policy has veered from supportive to antagonistic. Many governments are unaware of the contribution of the informal economy, which has a weak voice. Policymakers must start listening - to formulate inclusive policies more relevant to Africa’s development. [From The Conversation.]

The informal sector in Africa is here to stay. Are city governments ready for this challenge?
Louise Fox, University of California, Berkeley
Productively employing Africa’s ‘youth bulge’ is an urgent urban development problem. Sub-Saharan Africa has the youngest population in the world. High fertility (even in urban areas) and rural-urban migration means that new workforce entrants – mostly youth – are looking to urban and peri-urban areas for employment. Are urban leaders ready for this? [From The Broker.]

Education is not the cure-all for economic problems it is made out to be
Steven Friedman, University of Johannesburg
Just about everyone agrees that more and better education is a solution to most of our economic problems, including inequality. However, education often produces inequality. Education is not a miracle cure and the fixation with its supposed healing powers may divert us from tackling our deeper problems. [From Business Day.]

How high unemployment has eclipsed the plight of South Africa's working poor
Mike Rogan & John Reynolds, Rhodes University
Since 2006, more than one-fifth of South Africa’s total workforce has been living in households which are not able to meet their basic minimum food and non-food requirements. Unemployment is the main concern for about half of the poor population while low earnings or the poor quality of work is the concern for the other half.
[From The Conversation.]

How current measures underestimate the level of poverty in South Africa
Josh Budlender, Ingrid Woolard & Murray Leibbrandt
A review of South Africa's measures of poverty shows that close to 63% of people in the country are poor. This is significantly higher than the usually-quoted StatsSA figure of 53%s, which is based on their (adjusted) upper-bound poverty line.
[From The Conversation.]

Articles from Project Syndicate

Where will all the workers go?
Daniel Roubini, New York University
Recent technological advances have three biases: They tend to be capital-intensive; skill-intensive; and labor-saving (thus reducing the total number of unskilled and semi-skilled jobs in the economy). Robotics and automation will continue to displace workers in blue-collar manufacturing jobs. Eventually, technology will replace manufacturing and service jobs in emerging markets as well. Training workers in the relevant skills may not be sufficient to absorb workers, in which case it will become necessary to provide permanent income support to those whose jobs are displaced by software and machines.

Articles from The Broker website - perspectives from Europe:

Embracing inclusive growth
Evert-Jan Quak, The Broker
Now that economists more and more accept the idea that inequality is rising in most parts of the world and harms sustainable economic growth, the obvious next step is to change the policies that cause it. Is redistribution enough? Or do we have to go further to embrace inclusive growth?

Unleashing those constrained gazelles
Michael Grimm, University of Passau
SMEs can and need to play an important role in securing and creating new jobs, if development programmes revert their focus to job creation with the help of effective training and restructured access to finance.

Employment needs more than GDP growth
Frans Bieckmann, The Broker
The prevailing assumption that GDP growth alone will generate more decent work is not valid. And it obstructs the creation of a society in which labour serves and dignifies both the individuals and the collective. Labour is more than a mere input for economic growth.

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The three Rs...

READ, WRITE & REASON

Econ3x3 provides a platform to promote robust economic policy discourse in South Africa. The complexity, but also sterility of public debate on many policy issues, demands that knowledgeable individuals engage in robust debate. This can inform other individuals and policymakers on issues that they deal with in day-to-day policy making or policy analysis.

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Axel Schimmel-pfennig

Articles

From the REDI3x3 project:

The South African informal sector: Creating jobs, reducing poverty

Download from HSRC Open Access:

Working Papers from the REDI3x3 project are available HERE

INTERESTING STUFF from elsewhere...

Articles from Project Syndicate

Articles from The Broker website - perspectives from Europe:

READ, WRITE & REASON

Creating jobs, reducing poverty I: Why the informal sector should be taken seriously and enabled properly

Adcorp’s employment and unemployment figures are not taken seriously by researchers – yet they can do much harm

Who are the middle class in South Africa? Does it matter for policy?

What is the role of manufacturing in boosting economic growth and employment in South Africa?

Informal settlements: poverty traps or ladders to work?

How high is graduate unemployment in South Africa? A much-needed update

Why are foreign-run spaza shops more successful? The rapidly changing spaza sector in South Africa

How much is inequality reduced by progressive taxation and government spending?

A job in the informal sector reduces poverty about as much as a job in the formal sector

Who creates jobs, who destroys jobs? Small firms, large firms and labour market rigidity